The U.S. automotive aftermarket is expected to grow on a compound annual growth rate of 3.4% until 2017, according to the “2014 Joint Channel Forecast Model” produced jointly by the Automotive Aftermarket Suppliers Association (AASA) and the Auto Care Association.
The 2014 Joint Channel Forecast Model predicts that the rate of growth will equal an increase of $35 billion in total aftermarket sales over the four-year period from 238.4 billion in 2013 to 273.4 billion in 2017.
“The forecast model demonstrates that despite strong new vehicle sales, historic high gas prices and a flattening of miles driven, our industry is poised for steady growth,” said Kathleen Schmatz, Auto Care Association president and CEO. “Why? The average age of vehicles is 11.4 years, the oldest ever, and the age mix of vehicles continues to favor older vehicles, creating a robust sweet spot for service and repair.”
“The forecast model anticipates that growth in population, employment and income will lead to an increase in miles driven and the number of vehicles on the road resulting in long term aftermarket growth,” said Bill Long, AASA president and COO. “The Channel Forecast Model is a tool to help participants achieve that growth despite some of the major market shifts facing our industry such as vehicle telematics, increasing vehicle technology, new-model introductions and parts proliferation.”
The market sizing and forecast is conducted on behalf of AASA and the Auto Care Association by IHS – driven by Polk. It is based on the U.S. Census Bureau’s Economic Census, IMR and Polk data, and proprietary IHS economic analysis and forecasting models.
The Joint Channel Forecast Model is available at the AASA website, aftermarketsuppliers.org, and in the Auto Care Association’s 2015 Digital Auto Care Factbook, available at autocare.org.
