Good morning, and welcome back to a Tariff Free America! Well, at least as far as consumer tires imported from China are concerned.

So now that import tariffs on passenger and light truck tires shipped from China are back to their pre-September 2009 level of 4%, what is gonna happen now?

We really don’t know.

On one hand, the case can be made that there will be pricing restraint. While consumer tire prices have been falling slowly over the past year thanks to a choked economy that continues to push consumers to the edge, there has been no free-fall. The clear price separation between so-called “entry level” tires and those on the so-called “premium” end of the spectrum remains in place; even as the destructive tariff pushed the prices of China-made/imported tires higher, all of the Big Boys made sure that prices on their mid-line and top-end products stayed well clear of the bottom end of the product screen. And that’s the way they want it.

Even as China-made/imported tires lost share to product produced in other countries, their importers dealt with the pricing. Some ate the increased tariff, others adjusted their prices to balance the pain. Some left completely.

But none could solve the dreadful impact of the economy. The consumer cost/expense pushback against new tires was universal; they stopped buying ALL tires, not just low-priced products or super-expensive premium tires.

So what impetus is there for importers to drop prices? And do they really want to attract the kind of “dumping” attention that leads to a worse tariff/duty fate? If you are already getting $100 for something with little buyer pushback, why would you take a dime less – especially if you automatically gain 25%? That’s bad business, no matter what country you are from.

[Even as I am writing this blog post this morning, I heard from folks that at least one MAJOR manufacturer dropped prices on some brands/lines by as deep at 8% as of today. So much for self-restraint!]

On the other hand, we’ve heard stories of some importers piling up order sheets waiting for today, and of others that have leveraged opportunities to fill warehouses with China-made radials, betting that the Section 421 tariff will fade peacefully into the mist.

The expectation of some in the industry may be that these importers are poised to explode cheap, cheaper and cheapest priced tires in a marketshare grab, chasing hard the “pent-up demand” that has been touted since the economy went south.

Folks, if you believe that great gobs of American consumers have been laying in wait, running their tires through the cords, for the Section 421 tariff to expire, I got a bridge to sell you! There is no pent-up demand. That phrase – like the post-2000-recall “flight to quality” claim of some tiremakers – is nothing more than exec-speak to make shareholders feel better.

Yes, there are plenty of people who need new tires – always is. You know a lot of them. Some simply don’t have the money; they cannot choose tires over food and shelter – even if those tires were bargained priced. Just because tires might become less expensive doesn’t mean struggling drivers are in any better position to buy them.

Wide-scale price dumping might buy a few marketshare points (for the short term), but it can also create a tsunami of price disruption that can have highly negative effects from the production line to the install bay. Are tire prices ridiculously high right now? Don’t think anyone can argue, especially after 2011’s record-busting 100+ price hikes.

But even after some downward price creep this year, that’s where we are. Driving the retail price of passenger and light truck/SUV tires through the floor is a dangerous game. And unnecessary.

The best we can hope now is that sanity prevails, that the industry eases its way back to a comfortable and competitive level that minimizes disruptive forces – high or low.

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Veteran public relations executive, all-around good guy and regular Tire Review contributor Tom Duke refuses to stand still. Retired since 2007 after a long career with a couple of tire companies and a top tire-related PR agency, Duke has spent his time championing professional public relations amongst both his peers and up-and-comers from Akron-area universities.

As if that wasn’t enough, Duke was recently named chair of Akron SCORE – a small-business counseling group. He started doing volunteer work with SCORE about four years ago, and has helped many small businesses in the greater Akron area with their growing pains.

Affiliated with the U.S. Small Business Administration, there are some 360 SCORE chapters across the country. In his new full-time volunteer retirement job, Duke leads a group of 70-some former and current business executives who have volunteered their time to provide direct counseling for small and medium-sized businesses.

Congrats to Tom and his wife, Juanita, who herself is a busy volunteer for the American Red Cross.

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Speaking of spending our time on better things, Goodyear tried to score a PR coup (or coupe) by offering driving lessons to spoiled-brat, serial offenders Lindsay Lohan and Amanda Bynes, both of whom have a checkered – and well-publicized – past with all things with big engines and four tires.

The tiremaker offered to fly the little misses to Akron for personal professional driving instruction. Why? Who knows.

According to reports, Goodyear’s letter to each erstwhile actress said: “We’re sorry to hear about your latest driving mishap. We understand that you’ve struggled behind the wheel before and that driving can be a real challenge… We’re concerned for your safety and the safety of those who hit the road each day, and we’d like to help out any way we can.”

While I do hope this will go away quicker than Andrew Firestone’s never-ending 15 minutes, I wonder if either of the two will be invited to appear at Goodyear’s dealer meeting? Perhaps they can host a ride-n-drive?