The U.S. automotive aftermarket – parts, service and tires – is expected to grow 3.4% annually through 2016 to $263.8 billion, according to the new Channel Forecast Model sponsored by the Automotive Aftermarket Industry Association (AAIA) and the Automotive Aftermarket Suppliers Association (AASA).

AAIA and AASA said they partnered to produce the Channel Forecast Model to “create a single industry view of the size, growth rate and outlook for the motor vehicle aftermarket and thus provide a unified view of the industry’s magnitude, significance and potential, importance to legislators, regulators, investors and all stakeholders.”

IHS Global Insight, a global leader in economic and financial analysis, forecasting and market intelligence, conducted the market sizing and forecast for the associations. Data presented, said the associations, is based on U.S. Department of Commerce, Federal Reserve Board and U.S. Census Bureau’s data, IMR and Polk data as well as proprietary IHS economic analysis and forecasting models.

“The forecast model demonstrates that despite strong new vehicle sales, historic high gas prices and a flattening of miles driven, our industry is poised for steady growth,” said Kathleen Schmatz, AAIA president and CEO. “Why? The average age of vehicles is 11.3 years, the oldest ever, and the age mix of vehicles continues to favor older vehicles, creating a robust sweet spot for service and repair.”

“The forecast model anticipates that growth in population, employment and income will lead to growth in miles driven and the number of vehicles on the road resulting in long term aftermarket growth,” said Bill Long, AASA president and COO. “The Channel Forecast Model is a tool to help participants achieve that growth despite some of the major market shifts facing our industry such as vehicle telematics, increasing vehicle technology, new-model introductions and parts proliferation.”