TrueCar, Inc.’s data and analytics subsidiary, ALG, projects total new vehicle sales will reach 1,288,972 units in September, down 2.2% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

For the third quarter, total vehicle sales are forecast to be 4,334,457 units, up 1% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days, which would mark the first quarter in 2019 to show an increase in sales year-over-year. This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light-vehicle sales is an estimated 17.4 million units, with ALG projecting 2019 new car sales to continue to stay on course to reach 17M units as initially forecast in January. Excluding fleet sales, ALG expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,075,416 million units, a decrease of 4.4% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

“Despite a slight rebound in consumer confidence in September, overall auto sales are expected to decline given that Labor Day weekend fell into August this year,” said Oliver Strauss, chief economist for ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar. “Nevertheless, the third quarter was up and auto sales remain on pace to hit 17 million units for 2019 aided by more fleet and incremental incentives.”

Retail unit sales for the third quarter should reach 3,767,621, down 3.1% compared with the same period last year adjusted for the same number of selling days. TrueCar and ALG also assessed brand retention performance through the replacement vehicle indicated via TrueCar’s consumer trade experience for Q3.

Toyota had the highest indicated brand retention at 43%. Honda and Chevrolet tied for second at 42% followed by Subaru at 40% and Ram at 37%. At the model level, the Chevrolet Corvette had the highest indicated brand retention at 49% followed by the Subaru Forester and the Jeep Wrangler Unlimited each with 29%.

Used vehicle sales for the third quarter are expected to reach 10,260,316 up 1.8% year-over-year and down 3.9% from Q2 2019.