Welcome, Canada! - Tire Review Magazine

Welcome, Canada!

The Financial Post told me today that Canada is officially in a recession.

Now before you go all “Where have they been” on our friends to the north, it’s important to note that Canada was relatively unaffected by the core of our financial meltdown – the house of cards that was our housing and investment markets. Their banks and investment houses didn’t jump on the greed wagon, and Canadian home buyers weren’t leveraged to the teeth. Smart, eh?

But, try as it might, Canada cannot totally insulate itself from the sins of others, and that carry-over from the States and Europe has finally poured over the country.

Said FT today, “Statistics Canada will be reporting gross domestic product for this year’s first quarter. It’s expected to show the second consecutive annualized decline in GDP, meeting widely accepted criteria for a recession.

“Not only is another economic contraction thought to have happened during this year’s first three months, it’s believed to have been a doozy. Analysts polled by Reuters had a median estimate of a 6.6% decline in 2009’s first quarter, which would be the biggest drop since record keeping began in 1961.

“That would follow a 3.4% economic contraction in 2008’s final quarter.”

But Canadian analysts say they expect the Canadian economy to start growing again in 4Q 2009. So much like GM’s bankruptcy, Canada’s recession will only last a few months. Same as the Stanley Cup playoffs!

A key indicator, though, is Canada’s unemployment rate, which is expected to hit 8.3% with the upcoming May report, and that doesn’t help. U.S. job losses are expected to be announced this week, and most expect the jobless rate to jump from 8.9% to 9.3%. Ouchie!

If you have comments to share, send to me at [email protected].

– Jim Smith

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