Passenger vehicle volumes in China are expected to rise more than 10 million units by 2026, according to IHS Automotive forecasts. 
“If we think of China as 31 separate countries, 19 of the 20 fastest growing passenger vehicle markets in the world since 2002 are in China,” Henner Lehne, global head of light vehicle forecasting for IHS Automotive. “Our new forecast seeks to provide insight and guidance, inform key business decisions and investment, and offers a level of forward-looking intelligence on the market in China that has been unavailable up to now.”
The IHS analysis found that while some markets will slow down, other provinces will grow exponentially.
The Guangdong providence is seeing car sales rivaling some of the strongest markets in the world and is growing at more than twice China’s national average, IHS reported. Shangdong, in eastern China, is now the ninth largest market for passenger vehicles globally with additional growth expected. And the Fujian providence has jumped from the 66th largest passenger vehicle market in 2002 to the 36th today, which is larger than Norway, Peru and Israel combined.
Beijing and Shanghai new passenger vehicle registrations are thought to have peaked, but there is still some medium-term sales growth prospects, the IHS Automotive analysis found.
The IHS study also found that some provinces will see a significant slowdown in sales by the middle of the next decade. Shandog, which was averaging double digital growth, will fall to just 5% growth by 2026.
