From the AAPEX stage in Las Vegas Nov. 3, Bill Hanvey, president and CEO of the Auto Care Association, and Paul McCarthy, president and COO of AASA, presented a briefing on electric vehicles and e-commerce and their effects on the aftermarket. Hanvey commented on how the aftermarket has changed since the pandemic began 20 months ago and activities started shutting down.
“We saw consumer behavior change,” he said. “We started purchasing more aftermarket goods online. And we wondered: ‘How long will this last?’ ‘Has purchasing behavior changed forever?’”
“Meanwhile, electric vehicles have gained further adoption and become part of the everyday conversation across the country,” McCarthy added, noting that the U.S. contains more EVs on the road than ever before. “And, with OEM commitments, regulatory goals and consumer incentives, every executive we talk with is thinking about the impact this trend is having on the aftermarket.”
The presentation included some details from an e-commerce study led by Jefferies, with contributors IHS Markit, IMR Inc. and M Science. It also included details from an EV study was spearheaded by Strategy&, the strategy division of PwC, with contributors IHS Markit, IMR Inc., Schwartz Advisors and YCP Solidiance.
Some key takeaways from these studies: The value of aftermarket products sold through e-commerce hit nearly $32 billion in 2020, and this number is growing for 2021. E-commerce growth through 2025 across all retail providers and “marketplaces” like Amazon, eBay and Walmart will hit $47 billion or more by 2025.
The reports will also show how large the parts market will be for the EVs out to 2045. Akshay Singh, of PwC’s Strategy&, took the stage to dig into the EV data, adding that cost of ownership and building out EV infrastructure are likely to be driving factors in consumer EV adoption rates.
“So based on that, we are projecting by 2030, you’re going to see anywhere from 14-20% [of sales being EVs]. Some forecasts say 25%, some forecast are 30%,” Singh said. “Fifty percent, I believe, is very, very aggressive, but we feel this could be anywhere between 14-25%.”
Hanvey and McCarthy thanked the research teams as well as the association market research leads, Mike Chung of the Auto Care Association and Philip Atkins of AASA. The research teams presented an executive summary of their findings, which will be available on the Auto Care Association and AASA websites. Hanvey said the full reports will be available free of charge to association members and at cost to non-members after AAPEX, and all revenues collected from the sales of these reports will be put toward RepairAct legislative efforts.
