2011 has become the year of lowered expectations. The economy, which was supposed to show moderate growth this year, has stalled – again. Car sales, which experts said would show vast improvement, have flattened – again.
And now the RMA has lowered its 2011 tire shipment forecast. After an August prediction that we’d see a 296 million-tire year, the RMA has regrouped and now expects total 2011 tire shipments to only reach 287 million units.
Still, the RMA said, that total represents a nearly 1% increase (about 2 million tires) over 2010.
Looking forward, the RMA’s 2012 forecast “remains guardedly optimistic as U.S. economic growth is anticipated to remain slow. As such, overall tire shipments are forecasted to increase by more than 2%, reaching a total of over 290 million total units. Persistently high fuel costs, a decrease in miles driven by consumers plus moderating growth in the commercial replacement tire sector have led to a restrained outlook.”
The OE side of the ledger remains positive, the RMA said, while replacement shipments are off.
As of today, here is how the RMA breaks down 2011 and sees 2012:
• OE P-Metric: Revised slightly lower to approximately 35 million units, a 5.4% increase over 2010. The forecast for 2012 is for an approximate 13% increase, to nearly 40 million OE units.
• OE LT-Metric: Forecasted to see a nearly 15% increase in 2011 to approximately 4.2 million units. However, a 7% decrease, or approximately 300,000 units for a total of 3.9 million units, is forecasted for 2012.
• OE Medium Truck: Commercial OE tire shipments were revised upward for 2011 to approximately 54%, reaching nearly five million total units. For 2012, the forecast is for an additional nearly 10% increase as pent up demand offsets a slowing economy.
• Replacement P-Metric: The category was revised down some 2% as vehicle miles driven have declined, energy costs remain high, and continued economic uncertainty weighs on the consumer. For 2012, less than 1% growth is forecasted – representing just 1 million tires – as economic growth continues to remain sluggish and vehicle miles driven ticks up slightly.
• Replacement LT-Metric: Was revised downward to an approximate 2% increase in 2011 – a growth of approximately 700,000 units over 2010. For 2012, no further increase is anticipated as the economy is expected to remain weak.
• Replacement Medium Truck: This market is anticipated to increase by approximately 1.5 million units in 2011 to nearly 17 million units. For 2012, an additional 800,000 units are anticipated.